Alpha Bank determined that Delta Industrial Machinery Corporation has 2% change of
default on a one-year no-payment of USD $1 million, including interest and principal
repayment. The bank charges 3% interest rate spread to firms in the machinery industry,
and the risk-free interest rate is 6%. Alpha Bank receives both interest and principal
payments once at the end the year. Delta can only default at the end of the year. If Delta
defaults, the bank expects to lose 50% of its promised payment.
What may happen to the Delta's initial credit parameter and the value of its loan if the
machinery industry experiences adverse structural changes?